Data Analysis and Industry Reports

Major surveys, data analyses and accompanying reports led or co-authored by Justin McDonald.

Bay Bridge

The State of CNP False Positives Report (2018)

Work Completed as: Sr. Risk Management Consultant, The Fraud Practice

Primary Responsibilities: Led collaborative design of focused survey; Performed all data analysis of survey results; Primary author of report (text).

Project Overview: This study was focused on understanding how organizations doing business in the Card Not Present channel measure and track performance related to false positives, also known as sales insults. This refers to when a consumer or their order is declined due to suspicion of fraud, but it was actually a legitimate customer. Measuring and benchmarking false positives is a major challenge for many organizations, while many don't attempt to track sales insults. This survey and corresponding data analysis report provides insights into how merchants track false positives along with multiple proxies and methods used, and provides key figures on insult rates, how many organizations are tracking false positives, and where organizations are looking to improve.

Download the Report: Inaugural State of CNP False Positives Survey Report.


Mobile Payments and Fraud Annual Survey: 2013-2018

Work Completed as: Sr. Risk Management Consultant, The Fraud Practice

Primary Responsibilities: Led survey design and creation in inaugural year and contributed to continuing evolution of the survey; performed all survey data prep and analysis for each year of the study (6 years running), including hundreds of various cross-sections, tables and charts per annual report to illustrate growth, trends and significance of mobile channel payment and fraud; Author of full report copy (text) each year, including discussion and analysis around key trends and findings, Executive Summary and Conclusions to craft a cohesive narrative.

Project Overview: This survey reached thousands of respondents each year, representing merchants, payment processors, card issuers and fraud solution vendors. It measures the efforts, investments, and revenue organizations are putting into and getting back from the mobile channel, including remote mCommerce and mobile payments at the physical point-of-sale. The study has shown significant growth in mobile channel revenue since the inaugural survey was conducted at the end of 2012 and also measures fraud losses specifically in the mobile channel and what risk management resources organizations employ to combat mobile fraud. As the mobile channel grows so too has this study, with the most recent report including over 100 pages of tables, charts and interpretation of the data analysis.

Download the Report: Mobile Payments & Fraud Survey - 2018 Report (with 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014 and 2012/2013 reports also available).


Inaugural State of Payment Processing and Fraud Report (2018)

Work Completed as: Sr. Risk Management Consultant, The Fraud Practice

Primary Responsibilities: Led collaborative design of focused survey; Performed all data analysis of survey results; Primary author of report (text).

Project Overview: This first-of-its kind study focused on payment providers provides insight into where the processor market is heading and the value-added services that are being adopted to attract, acquire and retain merchant clients.This includes services such as support for cross-border and CNP payments, offering fraud management tools and services, providing reporting and business analytics, and more. Payment industry organizations shared insight on which of these types of services are most critical to attract and retain merchant clients, and which services have provided the most benefit in terms of increasing processing volume and keeping their clients satisfied.

Download the Report: Inaugural State of Payment Processing and Fraud Report.


Use of Consumer Authentication in eCommerce: Annual Survey, 2014-2017

Work Completed as: Sr. Risk Management Consultant, The Fraud Practice

Primary Responsibilities: Led survey design and creation; performed all survey data prep and analysis each year, including many cross-tabs, cross-sections, time series analyses and charts to show various trends regarding the use of Consumer Authentication and implementation methods; Author of full report copy (text) each year, including interpretation and analysis of key trends and findings, Executive Summary and Conclusions to craft a cohesive narrative; Performed all chart and table formatting as well as full page layouts for final published version of 2015 through 2017 reports.

Project Overview: This annual study focuses on the use of Consumer Authentication programs, such as Verified by Visa and MasterCard SecureCode for managing payments and risk in the Card Not Present (CNP) channel. The annual report identifies and discusses key findings along with longitudinal trends and analysis, including perspectives from all kinds of payment industry players as well as merchants who both use and do not use these services today. Focal points of the study include measuring the use and support of Consumer Authentication across merchants and vendors, performance and satisfaction with using such services, as well as implementation methods and techniques that influenced better results. The most recent report includes nearly 50 charts and tables in a 38 page summary analysis report.

Download the Report: Use of Consumer Authentication in eCommerce - Annual Survey, 2017 (with 2016, 2015 and 2014 reports also available).


Masters Thesis: Have Migration Trends Changed Permanently in Florida?

McDonald-Thesis-FL-Migration Work Completed as: Graduate Student, M.Sc. Applied Economics, Florida State University, 2010

Primary Responsibilities: Contributed equally with two partners in completing this group project serving as the culmination or thesis of our one-year Master's degree program. I worked on research, data analysis and forecasting, as well as interpretation of the analysis and report writing for multiple sections of the report, and was fully responsible for all sections that leveraged Florida public school enrollment data. 

Project Overview: As the keystone of the one-year Applied Economics Master's of Science program, students self-selected groups of three to collectively lead the development of a business or public policy related report incorporating statistical data analysis and forecasting to ultimately drive policy or business decisions for the hypothetical client. Following the housing market crash and economic recession, for the first time in decades the state of Florida realized net resident outflow in 2008 and 2009. Using a robust mix of sources, including US Census, tax return and public school enrollment records, our team was able to consider demographic, socioeconomic, macro economic and regional US data to forecast gross inflow and outflow migration patterns between Florida and other states. The analysis includes Ordinary Least Square (OLS) regressions, logistic regressions, lagging variables and other advanced modeling and forecasting techniques. The 106 page report accurately predicted a return to net migration inflows of over 100,000 residents per year as economic outlook both in Florida and nationwide improved.

Download the Report: Have Migration Trends Changed Permanently in Florida? An Analysis of Migratory and Demographic Patterns within the State of Florida (PDF)

Other Professional Works and Accomplishments:


      Speaking at Conferences & Events

      Media Quotes and Interviews

      White Papers & Technical Writing

    Press Releases & Marketing Writing

    Private Consulting & Research

  Developed Professional Training

    Website Design and Management